Posts Tagged ‘newt gingrich’
Don’t blame me for the headline, I didn’t write it, the only credit I can claim is for the shock and bewilderment I experienced at seeing that headline at the top of the results on my Twitter search for “Newt” . . .
Seriously, Twitter? That’s what you’re choosing to serve up as the first thing people see when they search for “Newt”? Did you just start doing this “Top news” thing for Newt’s sake because I haven’t seen that atop the searches before. (Quite possible I never noticed, though. This was definitely an eye-grabber.)
Here’s the deal on it, though – the article is from the right-leaning Washington Examiner, so it can’t be dismissed as a liberal hit piece, in fact, the article is only quoting the numbers from three separate polls, but when you look at these numbers on the approval / disapproval ratings, it’s hard to argue anything but the fact that Gingrich is not liked by most of America.
source: Washington Examiner
When you see -30% on his approval ratings, those numbers cannot be turned around, especially when you consider the fact that Gingrich is not a newcomer and most of those opinions on Gingrich have been solid and unchanging for years.
Face it, Gingrich fans, you’re working to nominate a guy whose candidacy will do one thing and one thing only – ensure four more years of Barack Obama.
Sure, it’s one thing to say you support a candidate, it’s another thing to say you think they’ll actually win, but it’s something altogether different when you’re ready to put your money where your mouth is. That’s why I would trust the odds of how much money people are willing to bet on a candidate even more than I would the latest poll numbers.
Let’s look at the odds of Gingrich winning the presidency according to the money being bet on Intrade.
Click here for the latest Intrade odds on Gingrich winning the presidency.
The money has Gingrich at a 6.3% chance of becoming president. Personally, I think that’s a bit high, he’s a longshot to win the GOP nomination alone and I don’t think he has a prayer winning enough Independent voters to beat Obama, but for the true believers, how do you like these apples?
How do you like the prospects of a $906 profit on a $94 bet??? That’s a return of over 9.5 times what you invested!!!
Now if you’re a true-believing Gingrich supporter, sure, your first priority financially should be in donating to his campaign, but if you really believe President Gingrich could become a reality, those are odds you’d almost be crazy not to take advantage of.
I knew the folks at NRO followed my blog but still was surprised to see how quickly my last post would inspire their front page repudiation of Gingrich.
Yes, the power and influence of this blog is second only to the fun I have imagining it as such, but the timing of this lastest “dis-endorsement” against Gingrich was pretty tightly timed right after my last post.
The editors elucidate on why they came out against Gingrich: Winnowing the Field.
NRO’s Victor Davis Hanson also has a great read comparing and constrasting Newt and Mitt (he finds the two far more comparable than contrasted) although he doesn’t arrive at a conclusion and leaves it to the reader: The Gingrich Gamble
When arch-conservative Ann Coulter goes all in for a moderate candidate like Mitt Romney, when conservative talk radio firebrand Michael Savage offers Newt Gingrich one-million dollars of his own money to “drop out of the presidential race for the sake of the nation,” you may wonder why so many high profile conservatives are urging the GOP to drop its front runner like a hot potato. Well, it’s no wonder really, it’s all about winning in November – they have their doubts about Gingrich and I have mine as well, so let me give you my own personal list of . . .
The Top Five Reasons Newt Would Lose to Obama:
1. Too many Independents are set against Newt Gingrich.
While there’s a bit of an enthusiasm edge on one side or the other from election to election, for the most part, American elections are split in thirds – there’s about one-third of America with its mind set to vote Democrat, about one-third with its mind set to vote Republican, and a middle-third which actually decides the election. It was the Independents who put Obama into the White House and it’s the Independents who seem poised to make him a one-term president, but when it comes to a choice of Gingrich vs. Obama, many Independents still remember the government shutdown of ’95 & ’96 and place the blame for it on Gingrich and not Clinton and many Indies see Newt as just too far right, the hardcore conservative Grinch, the Uncle Scrooge that the media painted him as, so is it any surprise when you look at the numbers?
Gingrich is 15-points underwater in approval with Independents. That’s not the fluid 15-points of a guy who’s new on the scene, either, Newt’s been around a long time, most people already have a set opinion on him and that 15-points, that’s going to be a hard 15-points for Gingrich to try to move.
2. The Obama State Media will be working overtime to vilify the GOP candidate, and Newt Gingrich gives them the biggest target.
The story that Newt demanded a divorce from his wife on her death bed is a lie, but a lie repeated so many times by the media that most people actually believe it to be true. If the MSM can get most of America to believe a lie about Gingrich, imagine what they can do with some of details of Gingrich’s life that aren’t in dispute. Adam O’Neal had a good read on why Gingrich’s personal scandals won’t carry as much weight as they might have in more prosperous times, but make no mistake about it, just look at these propaganda posters, er – I mean, magazine covers from the 90s and realize that mainstream media will have no shame in doing everything it can to demonize Newt once again and they’ll have a much easier time demonizing him than they would Romney.
3. Newt will lose those voters who vote on looks and charm.
If you’re reading this post, you’re probably a political junkie just the same as I am. Well, it may be hard for you and me to fathom, but the truth is, most Americans don’t even like politics, so when they go to vote, they could be locked into one party, or they might be capable of voting either way and even study the candidates’ positions out of a sense of civic duty, but never underestimate the amount of voters who don’t have the time to be bothered studying issues and who, whether consciously or not, cast their vote based on which candidate will look the best representing our nation. We all want someone pleasant to look at when they address the nation, but for some people, that’s really all they have to go by.
With Obama vs. Romney, the charisma factor might be a wash, but how much of a swing would it be for Obama vs. Newt? One out of twenty voters giving it up for Obama on looks alone? Just a wild guess, but I could easily see a 5-point swing for Obama here.
4. Nothing could fire up the Democrat base like the possibility of a President Gingrich . . .
Okay, maybe the prospect of a President Bachmann would inspire an equal amount of terror and determination in the hearts of Dems too, but – just visualize whatever amount of fight Democrats would have against a potential President Romney and then compare it to how they would fight against Gingrich tooth and nail, as if they were fighting against the end of civilization itself and it’s no contest, you want to inspire the despondent Democrats out of their doldrums, just nominate Newt.
5. Rich Lowry said it well enough, allow me to allow him to make the final point: “All that is predictable about Newt is that he is unpredictable, and, irresistibly, an election that should be about President Obama and his record will become about the heat and light generated by his electric performance. That’s the way it was as speaker, too. Eventually, he wore out his welcome in epic fashion.”
Newt Gingrich is a truly exceptional mind, I used to watch his college courses on TV with my eyes welling up with tears of pride over Gingrich’s stirring lectures and the way he could articulate so perfectly everything that is good about America and all that could be better about America, but as much as I love the professor and former Speaker of the House, there is only one thing Republicans should be focused on right now and that is nominating the candidate with the best chance at winning in November. Gingrich, as brilliant as he is, gives Obama way too many opportunities to make the election about the challenger instead of being a referendum on him and his dismal presidency.