Letters from the Lunar Outpost

Beauty is the wisdom of women. Wisdom is the beauty of men.
- Chinese Proverb, Anonymous Saying of Chinese Origin

Here are two (update: make it three) crazy trends going into Tuesday’s election, one of which (the so-called Redskins Rule) I’d heard about for a long while, the other two I’d just learned of over the last few days:

 

Trend Number One: The GOP Owns Nov. 6, with Republicans having won every November 6th presidential election since Election Day was standardized in 1845:

1860 – Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 – Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 – William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 – Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 – Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 – Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale

source: John Sexton at Breitbart.com

 

Trend Number Two: the NFL’s Redskins moved to Washington, D.C. in 1937.  Since then, the following rule has applied in 17 out of 18 elections: If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party wins the next election, if the Redskins lose, the incumbent party loses.

Even after The Redskins Rule held for sixteen straight elections, when the Redskins lost in 2004 and the GOP / Bush held the White House, you can recast the rule to work 18 out of 18 times by changing the rule from the party that won the last election being linked to the Redskins’ last home game to the party that last won the popular vote.

As improbable as the rule is in having predicted 72 years worth of presidential elections, it’s even more bizarre when you consider the rule applies to not just any NFL team, but a Redskins team playing a home game in the same city where the president resides.

 

Year Redskins Last Home Game Election Results Redskins
W or L
Incumbent
W or L
1940 Redskins 37
Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Roosevelt defeats Willkie W W
1944 Redskins 14
Cleveland Rams 10
Roosevelt defeats Dewey W W
1948 Redskins 59
Boston Yanks 21
Truman defeats Dewey W W
1952 Redskins 23
Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Eisenhower defeats Stevenson L L
1956 Redskins 20
Cleveland Browns 9
Eisenhower defeats Stevenson W W
1960 Redskins 10
Cleveland Browns 31
Kennedy defeats Nixon L L
1964 Redskins 27
Chicago Bears 20
Johnson defeats Goldwater W W
1968 Redskins 10
New York Giants 13
Nixon defeats Humphrey L L
1972 Redskins 24
Dallas Cowboys 20
Nixon defeats McGovern W W
1976 Redskins 7
Dallas Cowboys 20
Carter defeats Ford L L
1980 Redskins 14
Minnesota Vikings 39
Reagan defeats Carter L L
1984 Redskins 27
Atlanta Falcons 14
Reagan defeats Mondale W W
1988 Redskins 27
New Orleans Saints 24
Bush defeats Dukakis W W
1992 Redskins 7
New York Giants 24
Clinton defeats Bush L L
1996 Redskins 31
Indianapolis Colts 16
Clinton defeats Dole W W
2000 Redskins 21
Tennessee Titans 27
Bush defeats Gore L L
2004 Redskins 14
Green Bay Packers 28
Bush defeats Kerry L W
2008 Redskins 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Obama defeats McCain L L
2012 Redskins 13
Carolina Panthers 21
Redskins loss = Romney win? L L

Source: Wikipedia.

UPDATE: REDSKINS LOSS POINTS TO OBAMA LOSS!

 

Trend Number Three: The candidate who blinks more during debates has lost every election but one since 1980. Can you guess what the lone exception was? That’s right, as with The Redskins Rule, the one time it didn’t apply was in 2000, when a faster-blinking George W. Bush bested Al Gore in the electoral college, but lost the popular vote. So you can say that The Blinking Rule has been 8 for 8 in predicting the popular vote up to this election.

source: The Daily

So who blinked more in this year’s debates between Romney and Obama? Why Obama, of course. Obama blinked at a rate of 71 times per minute, blinking 1,000 more times during the debate than Romney did at 53 per minute. Was that a part of the unconscious factoring in Obama losing the debate by the largest margin in Gallup polling history? More importantly, will the Blinking Rule make it 9 out of 9 in predicting the presidential winner with a Romney win on Tuesday?

From the GOP Owning Nov. 6, to the Redskins Rule, to the Blinking Rule, three improbable ways of predicting the election are proving even more improbably accurate in doing so. Those are three pretty incredible streaks if you look at the mathmatical probabilities of either of them. I can’t say I put too much credence in any of it, but you can be for damn sure I’ll be rooting for the Panthers this Sunday.

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