Courage is poorly housed that dwells in numbers; the lion never counts the herd that are about him, nor weighs how many flocks he has to scatter.
- Aaron Hill, English Dramatist (1685-1750)
two (update: make it three) crazy trends going into Tuesday’s election, one of which (the so-called Redskins Rule) I’d heard about for a long while, the other two I’d just learned of over the last few days:
Trend Number One: The GOP Owns Nov. 6, with Republicans having won every November 6th presidential election since Election Day was standardized in 1845:
1860 – Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
1888 – Benjamin Harrison over incumbent Grover Cleveland
1900 – William McKinley over William Jennings Bryan
1928 – Herbert Hoover over Al Smith
1956 – Dwight Eisenhower over Adlai Stevenson
1984 – Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale
source: John Sexton at Breitbart.com
Trend Number Two: the NFL’s Redskins moved to Washington, D.C. in 1937. Since then, the following rule has applied in 17 out of 18 elections: If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party wins the next election, if the Redskins lose, the incumbent party loses.
Even after The Redskins Rule held for sixteen straight elections, when the Redskins lost in 2004 and the GOP / Bush held the White House, you can recast the rule to work 18 out of 18 times by changing the rule from the party that won the last election being linked to the Redskins’ last home game to the party that last won the popular vote.
As improbable as the rule is in having predicted 72 years worth of presidential elections, it’s even more bizarre when you consider the rule applies to not just any NFL team, but a Redskins team playing a home game in the same city where the president resides.
|Year||Redskins Last Home Game||Election Results||Redskins
W or L
W or L
Pittsburgh Steelers 10
|Roosevelt defeats Willkie||W||W|
Cleveland Rams 10
|Roosevelt defeats Dewey||W||W|
Boston Yanks 21
|Truman defeats Dewey||W||W|
Pittsburgh Steelers 24
|Eisenhower defeats Stevenson||L||L|
Cleveland Browns 9
|Eisenhower defeats Stevenson||W||W|
Cleveland Browns 31
|Kennedy defeats Nixon||L||L|
Chicago Bears 20
|Johnson defeats Goldwater||W||W|
New York Giants 13
|Nixon defeats Humphrey||L||L|
Dallas Cowboys 20
|Nixon defeats McGovern||W||W|
Dallas Cowboys 20
|Carter defeats Ford||L||L|
Minnesota Vikings 39
|Reagan defeats Carter||L||L|
Atlanta Falcons 14
|Reagan defeats Mondale||W||W|
New Orleans Saints 24
|Bush defeats Dukakis||W||W|
New York Giants 24
|Clinton defeats Bush||L||L|
Indianapolis Colts 16
|Clinton defeats Dole||W||W|
Tennessee Titans 27
|Bush defeats Gore||L||L|
Green Bay Packers 28
|Bush defeats Kerry||L||W|
Pittsburgh Steelers 23
|Obama defeats McCain||L||L|
Carolina Panthers 21
|Redskins loss = Romney win?||L||L|
UPDATE: REDSKINS LOSS POINTS TO OBAMA LOSS!
Trend Number Three: The candidate who blinks more during debates has lost every election but one since 1980. Can you guess what the lone exception was? That’s right, as with The Redskins Rule, the one time it didn’t apply was in 2000, when a faster-blinking George W. Bush bested Al Gore in the electoral college, but lost the popular vote. So you can say that The Blinking Rule has been 8 for 8 in predicting the popular vote up to this election.
source: The Daily
So who blinked more in this year’s debates between Romney and Obama? Why Obama, of course. Obama blinked at a rate of 71 times per minute, blinking 1,000 more times during the debate than Romney did at 53 per minute. Was that a part of the unconscious factoring in Obama losing the debate by the largest margin in Gallup polling history? More importantly, will the Blinking Rule make it 9 out of 9 in predicting the presidential winner with a Romney win on Tuesday?
From the GOP Owning Nov. 6, to the Redskins Rule, to the Blinking Rule, three improbable ways of predicting the election are proving even more improbably accurate in doing so. Those are three pretty incredible streaks if you look at the mathmatical probabilities of either of them. I can’t say I put too much credence in any of it, but you can be for damn sure I’ll be rooting for the Panthers this Sunday.